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The National Hurricane Center was monitoring an area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche that could mean heavy rainfall across the Valley and northern ranchlands, the National Weather Service Brownsville-Rio Grande Valley station reported Tuesday morning.
The NHS raised the chances of tropical development over the bay and southwestern Gulf of Mexico to 30% from Monday’s estimate of 20%. NWS meteorologists reported Tuesday that the broad low-pressure system was still producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, and said environmental conditions appeared “only marginally favorable” for additional development as the system drifts northward over the next few days.
The NWS expect the low-pressure system to merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf just east of the Texas coast by Wednesday morning, and said that regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops, it could mean more rain along the lower Texas coast and portions of the Lower Valley.
“Small Craft advisories or even brief gale conditions are possible across portions of Lower Texas coastal waters,” the NWS reported. “An approaching strong upper-level disturbance combined and increasing deep tropical moisture will bring a threat of locally heavy rain across the Rio Grande Valley and the northern ranch lands Tuesday and Tuesday night.”
The Weather Prediction Center, under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, issued a “Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall” for most of deep South Texas and the Valley into Tuesday night, with widespread showers and “a few embedded thunderstorms” possible. The recent beneficial rain across parts of the Valley a few days ago increases chances for isolated flash flooding where additional heavy rainfall occurs, according to meteorologists, who forecast a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for northernmost portions of Brooks and Jim Hogg counties.
“Generally, 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected through Tuesday night,” NWS said. “However, locally higher amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible, especially with the slower moving stronger storms.”
Rain chances were expected to decrease from west to east on Wednesday.
