With hot and dry conditions expected this summer and a growing population in Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, is anticipating record-breaking demands for electricity.
However, the council does not anticipate emergency conditions to occur such as what happened during the winter freeze in February that left nearly 70% of customers serviced by ERCOT without electricity for days.
ERCOT is identifying low-probability, high-impact situations similar to the February event in its seasonal assessments, to ensure all market participants and government officials have a comprehensive view into market conditions, ERCOT stated in a press release. This will allow the market to more fully plan and prepare for even the most remote possibility.
ERCOT also announced plans to visit selected power plants across the state to review summer weatherization plans. While plant visits have occurred in the past for winter weatherization, this is the first time officials will visit plants for summer.
“While the risk for emergency conditions remains low this summer based on many of the scenarios studied, a combination of factors in real time, including record demand, high thermal generation outages and low wind/solar output could result in tight grid conditions,” said Woody Rickerson, ERCOT’s vice president of Grid Planning and Operations. “We cannot control the weather or forced generation outages, but we are prepared to deploy the tools that are available to us to maintain a reliable electric system. We hope this report helps market participants prepare to assist the grid if needed.”
Severe weather conditions in February nearly cost the electrical grid to collapse. Temperatures around the state were either freezing or below freezing. Rolling blackouts and power outages lasted more than an hour in many sections across Texas.
Texans were left to fend for themselves, trying to stay warm, trying to keep food in their refrigerators from spoiling and trying to find gasoline for their vehicles. The Texas Health and Human Services Department in a statistical report stated the deaths of at least 100 individuals were linked to the winter freeze.
To everyone’s surprise on April 13, ERCOT requested that customers throughout Texas conserve electricity due to high generation outages and higher than expected demand for electricity.
ERCOT at that time said the state was currently in Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) 1 status, which occurs when reserves dip to a critical level and conservation is urged to ensure normal electrical operations.
Following ERCOT’s request, Brownsville Public Utilities Board requested that residential and commercial customers voluntarily conserve electricity until ERCOT announced that conditions had returned to normal.
On April 14, ERCOT said although officials anticipated tight grid conditions it was not asking customers to conserve electricity. The average temperatures in April were in the 80s.
The National Weather Service in Brownsville released its May-July 2021 outlook that stated that drought conditions could continue into the month of July and that there would be above average temperatures in South Texas.
ERCOT anticipates there will be enough generation to meet the summer 2021 peak demand of 77,144 MW. Based on this forecast, “the ERCOT region will have a 15.7 % reserve margin this summer season.” The current system-wide peak demand record for ERCOT is 74,820 set Aug. 12, 2019.
