Swing voters could decide tight race for District 34

Could swing voters decide the hotly contested election between Republican Mayra Flores and incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez for District 34?

Do those swing voters lean toward former president and presumed GOP nominee Donald J. Trump’s border policies?

The findings of a poll sponsored by the National Republican Congressional Committee suggest this may be the case.

The poll was conducted by 1892 Polling between April 11 and 13 of 400 likely voters in the November election.

“Responses were 75% cells and 35% landline, with interviews conducted in English and Spanish,” an 1892 Polling memo said.

That document calls the race a toss-up, with Gonzalez, D-Brownsville, leading Flores 48% to 45% with 7% of voters undecided.

According to the memo, 7% of undecided swing voters prefer Trump by +12% and dislike President Joe Biden by -12% “and are voting for a Republican on the generic Congressional ballot by +24%.”

The 1892 Polling memo also said Flores has a winning environment with inflation being the top issue among undecided voters for 54% of Independents and 41% of moderates.

“Flores is already winning voters who list inflation as their top issue on both open-end and closed-end questions (+2% and +3%, respectively),” the memo states.

Securing the border is the second most important issue to the Valley district, which spans Cameron County and portions of Hidalgo and Willacy counties, according to the polling.

“Importantly, immigration is also a winning issue with the middle. By 51%-36% voters favor ‘Trump’s border policies’ over ‘Biden’s border policies,’” the memo stated. “Independents favor Trump’s policies by +10%. Among voters who prefer Trump’s border policies, Flores leads the ballot at +64%.”

The Cook Political Report, which provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections, lists District 34 as competitive, but leaning toward Gonzalez with a Democratic advantage.

The Texas Legislature redistricted District 34 in 2022, which made it lean more Democratic.

Flores had won before redistricting in a special election after former U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela resigned and took a job with a lobbying firm prior to the redistricting.

Gonzalez had previously represented District 15, which was won in 2022 by U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-McAllen. That district was redistricted to become more favorable to Republicans and Gonzalez was drawn out of it.

March 31 filings with the Federal Elections Commission show Flores outraising Gonzalez by $981,053 while Gonzalez has $665,545 more cash on hand than Flores.

Flores has raised a total of $2,603,683, but has $2,234,294 in disbursements.

Of those, $2,352,308 are individual contributions and $251,375 are from committees.

She has $786,597 cash on hand.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, has raised a total of $1,622,053. A total of $763,985 came from individual contributions and $852,569 came from committees.

He has $1,452,142 cash on hand.