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Meteorologists with the National Weather Service Brownsville-Rio Grande Valley station say they are monitoring two “significant weather systems” over the coming week that will present multiple hazards to Rio Grande Valley residents in the form of high winds and very cold temperatures.
The first weather event is an upper level system bringing a cold front to deep South Texas early Friday morning. In its wake is the threat of powerful northwesterly winds, fire weather concerns and hazardous marine conditions, the NWS said. The second event will hit early next week, as the first arctic blast of the season arrives as early as Monday, bringing with it the lowest temperatures and wind chill indexes of the winter so far, meteorologists warned.
“Confidence is increasing for a widespread freeze Monday night into early Tuesday morning, and a hard freeze — temperatures less than 28 degrees Fahrenheit — cannot be ruled out,” NWS reported.
The highest chances for such cold temperatures are in northern and northwestern portions of deep South Texas, with the lowest chances in the Lower Valley and along the Lower Gulf Coast. Rio Grande City is looking at a 50% chance of temperatures lower than 28 the morning of Jan. 16, while the chances of such low temperatures for McAllen, Harlingen and Brownsville are 31%, 41% and 24%, respectively, according to the NWS.
As the cold front moves into deep South Texas on Friday morning, winds behind the front will rapidly grow in velocity from the northern ranch lands to the Valley as the barometric pressure gradient increases through the afternoon, meteorologists said.
“Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph, with potential gusts of 40 to 50 mph, are likely with this system,” they reported.
The NWS predicted the strongest winds will occur between about 6 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Friday, with at least a 70% likelihood that wind gusts of 30 mph or higher will persist into late Friday afternoon. The risk of rapidly spreading wildfires is expected to be elevated Friday as well, with falling relative humidity through morning (15% to 25% by midday) combining with strong winds and gusts of 34-45 mph or higher.
Hazardous marine conditions will worsen early Friday, with frequent gale force gusts by late morning into the evening. Small Craft Advisories could begin as early as Thursday due to strengthening winds, with gale warnings expected by Friday morning.
“Peak wave heights Friday afternoon are expected to be between 12 and 14 feet across all the Gulf waters,” meteorologists warned.
Residents and agricultural operators were advised to take precautions against the coming high winds and low temperatures. The NWS forecast contained high confidence, 70-80%, that temperatures will reach 32 or lower across the northern ranch lands Monday, and low to medium confidence, 30-60%, that temperatures would fall that low across the Valley.
Meteorologists had medium confidence, 50-60%, that temperatures would reach 28 degrees or lower across the northern ranch lands, and low confidence, 20-40%, that it would get that cold across the Valley.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas on Wednesday issued a Weather Watch for Jan. 15-17 due to extreme cold weather forecast for the region. The situation will create higher demand for electricity and “potential for lower reserves,” though grid conditions are expected to be normal, ERCOT said.
Grid conditions can be monitored at ercot.com, where residents may also sign up for grid notifications through ERCOT’s Texas Advisory and Notification System (TXANS).
