Despite the cold, soggy weather the past few days, the National Weather Service forecast still anticipates a warmer and drier than usual winter for the Rio Grande Valley in general.
That’s according to Kirk Caceres, meteorologist with the NWS Brownsville/RGV Station, who said there was always room in the forecast for occasional chilly temperatures and precipitation, though it would be the exception rather than the rule. Rest assured, La Niña, the Pacific Ocean climate pattern responsible for the “warmer and drier” forecast in South Texas, is still in the driver’s seat.
“Nothing’s changed,” Caceres said. “These are just little small anomalies that kind of float through. You’re going to have cold snaps from time to time, cold fronts and rain.”
The persistent cold, overcast and drizzle that ruined everyone’s outdoor plans this past weekend were thanks to “coastal troughing” — not unusual after a cold front comes through, he said. This most recent front showed up quietly on the Valley’s doorstep in the wee morning hours of Jan. 20.
Judging from observed rainfall, most of the precipitation that fell did so along the Rio Grande and near the coast, Caceres said.
“Basically Starr, Hidalgo, Cameron and maybe up to Willacy (counties), along the immediate coast and along the river” he said. “That’s kind of what you expect with a coastal trough, but of course also that’s where a lot of the observation platforms are at. There could have been some other areas across the ranch lands.”
In that case, the chances for rain diminished the farther one traveled west from the coast. Cameron, Hidalgo and Willacy currently are not in any level of drought condition, though Starr County is listed as “abnormally dry,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. And while parts of the Valley that have seen precipitation in recent days haven’t seen much, it still helps postpone the inevitable a bit longer.
“We had rain up to an inch, a little more than an inch in some locations,” Caceres said. “That does help. Every little bit of rain helps.”
As for the rest of this week, today (Jan. 25) was shaping up to be drier, but with another cold front sweeping through tonight into Wednesday, he said. Caceres wasn’t expecting rain chances to increase again until Wednesday, with another episode of coastal troughing expected
“Then it looks like we could have another widespread rain event, light rain, maybe some heavy rain at times,” he said. “Mostly just … light to moderate showers, drizzle. And that looks like Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday, and then rain chances may go up a little bit, because we have another, stronger front that comes through Thursday night.”
The first part of Friday looks soggy, but there’s a strong chance the sun will make an appearance over the weekend before another front arrives Sunday or Monday and brings with it more rain chances, though “nothing like we’ve been having,” Caceres said.
“Most of that rain should be in the Gulf of Mexico, so it looks like we’ll dry out again.”
