When it comes to the newest COVID-19 variant of concern, omicron, first reported in South Africa earlier this month and now confirmed in 25 U.S. states, including Texas, there are still more questions than answers.
That’s according to Dr. Joseph McCormick, veteran epidemiologist and founder of the UTHealth School of Public Health in Brownsville. Certain characteristics of the variant have revealed themselves, however, and people who are fully vaccinated have a high degree of protection against it, he said.
“I think the jury is still pretty much out in many ways,” McCormick said. “One thing that does seem pretty clear is that it is pretty infectious, and based on what’s coming out of South Africa, that it spreads pretty quickly.”
He said recently discovered evidence points to omicron being present in Botswana weeks before it was reported in South Africa, which means the variant has been circulating for a while. It’s no surprise then that as of Dec. 10 it had been reported in nearly 60 countries besides the United States, McCormick said, adding that the big question now is whether it will overtake delta, which is now surging in northeastern states and filling up hospitals with COVID patients — most of them unvaccinated — far beyond capacity.
To date omicron has not been detected in the Rio Grande Valley, he said.
“In our area thus far it has not, and we’re looking for it,” McCormick said. “So far we don’t see it.”
The reports from South Africa indicate that omicron is more transmissible than delta, and more children are becoming infected and hospitalized with it compared to delta, but that it doesn’t appear to cause the same severity of illness, he said. Vaccine maker Pfizer announced this month that antibodies in people who are fully vaccinated are sufficient to neutralize the virus, McCormick noted.
“That’s good news in the sense that it suggests that vaccines are really still the answer, particularly as we push for boosters now,” he said. “Boosters are the big deal.”
McCormick said other vaccines offer substantial protection against omicron as well, though it’s not known yet whether people who have gotten just two doses are as protected as those who have also received boosters.
“Whether people with two doses of vaccine are more likely to get infected and become ill, we don’t know the answer to that,” he said. “There’s a lot we don’t know yet about the disease. It’s possible even the symptoms are a little bit different.”
Cameron County has a much higher vaccination rate than the rest of Texas and the nation, with Hidalgo County not far behind, which means most residents in those two counties will have relatively high protection against omicron, McCormick said. Given the fact that people with obesity and diabetes are particularly susceptible to becoming extremely ill or dying from COVID, it’s essential that Valley residents be fully vaccinated, including boosters, since diabetes and obesity are so widespread here, he said.
“The case fatality rate in the Rio Grande Valley is just under 4 percent, whereas the case fatality rate for the state and nationally is about 1.8 percent,” McCormick said.
A scientific paper published a few days ago appears to show that the virus replicates in fat tissue, which may shed light on the role obesity plays regarding the virus, though it hasn’t been confirmed, he said.
“The other thing we don’t know is, is there a difference in immune response to vaccine in people who are obese? We don’t know the answer to that. We just know that people who are obese and with diabetes as well have a higher risk of severe disease,” McCormick said.
The bottom line on omicron is that it’s more transmissible and able to infect some people who are vaccinated, though fully vaccinated people are still likely to avoid serious illness or death from it, he said. The higher number of people vaccinated, the less chance a variant will come along that is highly transmissible, causes severe illness and evades vaccination protection, McCormick said.
The current surge in COVID cases is primarily being caused by unvaccinated people, he said, and expressed impatience with those anti-vaxxers. McCormick described an email he received from a colleague recently. The colleague’s sister is a nurse, and both she and her husband, likely in their 40s or 50s, were staunchly anti-vaccine, McCormick said.
“They both got COVID,” he said. “They go into the hospital. They were very ill. He died and she is a physical and emotional wreck, because she was so sick and then she lost her husband. … This story repeats itself all the time. As my colleague who sent me the email said, I just don’t understand. It doesn’t make sense.”
Booster shots are widely available, including on a walk-in basis in pharmacies, and getting them is the best hope for limiting the spread of omicron in the Valley, McCormick said.
“The answer is what it has been all along,” he said. “Get vaccinated, get boosted, wear a mask. That’s the answer to freedom. That’s the answer to improve the economic situation, because people will feel much more able to go to stores, go to restaurants and places to go shopping if they are vaccinated and boosted. If you want more freedom to do what you normally would do, then get vaccinated and wear a mask.”
