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Brownsville leads the United States in upward mobility, according to the results of a new study published recently by The Economist.
The analysis, conducted by the Census Bureau and Opportunity Insights, a Harvard University research group, uses the term “intergenerational mobility.” The study analyzed household income data from 50 of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas. In 38 of those metro areas, researchers found, Americans born to low-income families in 1992 were actually doing worse economically at age 27 than 27-year-olds born in 1978.
Not only was Brownsville an exception, it showed the biggest increase across generations. The study found that Brownsville residents born in 1992 made $33,500 at age 27 on average compared to $31,400 for those born 1978 — a 6.7% increase, adjusted to 2023 dollars.
“Intergenerational mobility — the idea that you’ll do better than your parents, your children will do better than you, and so on — is core to the American dream, but is far from a guarantee,” the study’s authors wrote.
Austin was just behind Brownsville in terms of positive mobility between generations, with a 6.4% increase. San Antonio was eighth on the list, its residents born in 1992 making on average 2.7% more at age 27 than those the same age born in 1978.
Among the 10 cities with the biggest decreases in intergenerational mobility, Philadelphia had the absolute worst showing, with a 12.7% reduction in average household income between the two groups studied.
The study noted that “the geography of mobility has shifted dramatically, especially when breaking down the data by race.”
“By 1992, upward mobility for low-income white children in the coasts and in the Southwest fell markedly to rates on par with those observed in Appalachia and other areas that historically offered the lowest chances of upward mobility,” the authors wrote. “Conversely, for Black children, upward mobility increased the most in the Southeast and the Midwest — areas where outcomes had historically been poorest for Black Americans.”
A key takeaway, according to the study, is that changes impacting one generation also rapidly impact the following generation, which causes “rapid chances in economic mobility.”
“While this carries hope for how opportunity can improve, it also comes with some caution, as communities can experience declining opportunity in a similar timeframe,” the authors wrote.
Brownsville Mayor John Cowen said he believes the study confirms what’s happening with the city.
“It’s showing what I think everyone’s feeling, is that there’s a lot of opportunity happening in Brownsville,” he said. “Incomes are rising — and relative to prices too. I think that’s an important point that that study (makes), is they take into account all the inflation that’s happened as well.”
Cowen called it positive news for the city and subsequent generations, and evidence of a trend.
“Those opportunities will continue to be there and wages will continue to rise, which is helping break the cycle of poverty in our community,” he said.
Cowen said it takes a “nuanced, comprehensive study” like this one to accurately tell the story of what’s happening in communities such as Brownsville, adding that it’s another feather in the city’s cap, especially in light of the situation in other parts of the country.
“It shows that this is a place for people to have a decent job and have that upward mobility to be able to potentially afford a home and live in a high-quality-of-life area,” he said.
For a deeper dive into the study, go to opportunityatlas.org.
