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The good news is that light to moderate rain events in late November and mid-December erased the drought across the Lower Rio Grande Valley, according to the National Weather Service Brownsville-RGV station, though December was slightly warmer than normal.
The bad news is that water levels at Amistad and Falcon reservoirs are still at or near record lows. And it’s uncertain whether late winter into early spring will be as “copacetic” as December, in the words of NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Barry Goldsmith.
In a recent update/outlook, he said the combination of rain and resulting moisture in the soil and low evaporation rates “ended all dryness” by early December, though despite that soil moisture (still not enough), inflows from farther north in the state and from tributaries that feed the Rio Grande, which raised Falcon slightly, Amistad’s water levels slowly continued to fall.
“The Texas share of conservation along the Rio Grande remained at record low levels for late December,” Goldsmith said.
The slight uptick in Falcon’s water level in December nudged it barely above records lows for the period — the lowest levels since late November 2002, he said. Without additional inflows from rainfall, warm and dry weather in the coming weeks will equal modest evaporation rates through February, Goldsmith said.
Meanwhile, the two reservoirs are at record seasonal lows and meteorologists are highly confident that water levels will remain well below average through the winter, he said.
Meteorologists have only medium certainty in forecasting rain and temperatures going forward, despite a strong El Nino weather pattern that was thought could boost rain chances, Goldsmith said.
“Confidence is also medium on dryness or possible moderate drought redevelopment by late winter/early spring and beyond,” he said. “Additional light to moderate rain events similar to November through mid-December would keep drought/dryness out.”
As for February, expect several cold fronts accompanied by “gray, drizzly” conditions for the month, though a hard freeze (at or below 27 degrees), remains unlikely Goldsmith said. After Jan. 5, it’s possible South Texas will experience between one and three freezes, along with wind chills of 30 or below, with the highest likelihood in brush country, he said.
Ice and/or snow is very unlikely this winter, though a “non-zero chance” exists through mid-February, Goldsmith said.
“Severe weather — hail, wind, flooding — could arrive in March, but confidence is low,” he said.
