Hurricane experts are putting Texas residents on alert for a potentially fast-forming tropical system now churning off the coast of Louisiana.
Should conditions remain favorable, a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as it moves westward toward the Texas coast.
As of Sunday, there was no imminent threat from what the National Weather Service was calling “an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.”
The potential for the system to become better organized into a tropical system over the next five days was rated “low,” at around 20 percent.
But low isn’t zero.
“Conditions for tropical development across the northwestern portion of the Gulf of Mexico look favorable for the final days of June,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
AccuWeather reported that light wind shear, combined with above-normal water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, mean conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or even a tropical storm by mid-week.
What is more certain, meteorologists say, is the low-pressure area will create a broad swathe of heavy rain over the course of this week.
“An influx of tropical moisture, streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico, will be running into a stalled front across the southern U.S. These opposite forces will squeeze out the moisture in between, leading to downpours from Texas to the Florida Panhandle,” Douty said.
This pattern is likely to persist for a few days, which means the same areas could be hit with more than one or two rounds of heavy rain, AccuWeather said.
The Valley forecast this week puts the probability of rain and thunderstorm at 15 percent on Monday, 20 to 30 percent on Tuesday, and 20 percent on Wednesday and Thursday.
Much further south, a second and more well-defined tropical wave off the shoulder of South America was churning away to the west.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to the middle part of this week,” was the word Sunday from the National Hurricane Center.
“This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern
Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday.”
This tropical wave has a greater than 60-percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm sometime late this week.
The Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1. The first named storm, Tropical Storm Alex, formed five days later in the Gulf of Mexico and produced heavy rainfall as it crossed Florida.
