McALLEN — Since 2020, much has been said about how the Rio Grande Valley has voted, particularly due to what was perceived by national media at that time as a curious shift toward Donald Trump.
Pointing to Starr County in particular, many believed that then-President Trump losing by a small margin to Joe Biden indicated a possible red wave washing over the Valley — a historically Democratic stronghold.
That wave never came, and the interest in the Valley’s turnout, at least nationally, waned. But the real story, whether voter apathy plagues an area desperate for a seat at the table with larger markets, was lost.
Friday marked the last day of early voting before Election Day here in Hidalgo and Cameron counties, the largest populated in the region, and while many voters took to the polls, in some cases surpassing previous elections, turnout did not match the rate of voter registration.
In fact in the largest county, the percentage of voter turnout during this early voting period has seemingly declined.
So what’s driving people to the polls and what’s preventing them from showing?
“I’ve been really involved with voting,” Estrella Zamorano, 25, of Edinburg, said just before casting her vote at the Lark Community Center on Friday. “My dad also ran for (justice of the peace) not too long ago, and I feel like it’s really important for us to be able to vote and voice our opinions.”
This was the second presidential election that she’d participated in. She said that she had waited for the last day of early voting for no particular reason, but like many who have been following this year’s election, she wanted to make sure that her voice was heard.
Zamorano said that she’s tried to convince her friends to go to the polls, but some still remain undecided about whether they want to participate.
“I have a lot of friends that haven’t come out to vote, and I’m there encouraging them to come out and vote. That way they’re able to see a difference in the world,” Zamorano said.
“I guess they’ve never voted before, or they’re too scared to vote.”
Elections administrators throughout the country have done much to facilitate the voting process, and in many parts of the state it has paid off.
The Texas Secretary of State has reported a total of 18,623,931 registered voters ahead of the Nov. 5 general election — a 5% increase from the Nov. 3, 2020 election when there were 17,672,143.
On Oct. 21, the San Antonio Express-News reported a record turnout in Bexar County with 46,820 voters casting their ballots on the first day of early voting.
In Hidalgo County, which has a total of 446,749 registered voters, there were 21,274 ballots cast on the first day, or 4.8% of the registered voters.
That number fell below the two previous presidential elections in 2020 and 2016. The 2020 general election saw 25,142 total ballots cast, or 6.4% of registered voters, on the first day of early voting. The 2016 general election had 23,457 total ballots cast on the first day, or 6.9% of registered voters.
In contrast, Cameron County, which has a total of 238,215 registered voters, surpassed the previous two turnouts on the first day of early voting with a total of 11,072 ballots cast. There were 10,983 ballots cast on the first day of early voting in 2020, and 6,581 in 2016.
Despite the higher number of first day voters, the percentage of registered voters casting ballots there fell below the previous presidential elections. In 2016, 3.3% of registered voters there voted on the first day of early voting. That percentage grew to 5% in 2020. This year, the percentage fell to 4.6%
Both Hidalgo and Cameron counties have seen the number of registered voters increase over the years. Hidalgo County had 392,604 registered voters in 2020, and 338,990 in 2016. Cameron County had 218,661 registered voters in 2020, and 197,726 in 2016.
Hidalgo County Elections Administrator Hilda Salinas said that it is hard to determine what could have caused the lower first day total in comparison to previous presidential elections, though she theorized that early voting beginning on a Monday as opposed to a Tuesday like in 2020 could be a contributing factor. It should also be noted that mail-in ballots are continuing to be processed by the ballot boards, she said.
“I mean, we’re just really excited and happy for the people that have turned out and gone to vote,” Salinas said.
Cameron County Elections Administrator Remi Garza said on Thursday that he thinks turnout has been strong.
“Well, we think it’s very strong considering that we are keeping pace with the 2020 election,” Garza said.
“The voters are coming to the polls. In 2020, we had three weeks of early voting, so there’s a lot more opportunities for people to take advantage of it,” he said. “This year with just two weeks, to see (voters) on pace with getting really close to a turnout of 89,000, it’s fantastic.”
One of those voters was Aaliyah Threadgill, 24, of Harlingen, who took to the polls on the first day of early voting. She said that it was her first time voting.
“I think it’s really important to vote, especially nowadays,” Threadgill said. “My family’s real big on voting. I always get asked to vote, so I was like, ‘You know what? I might as well just give it a try.’”
Garza said that he anticipates a large showing of voters on Election Day and hopes to surpass the 52% of registered voters who participated in 2020.
“We’ve always sort of made our plans based on the premise that early voting represents about 45% to 50% of the overall turnout, so we make sure that we’re prepared to absorb whatever that is, almost multiple,” Garza said. “I would be surprised if we actually saw that balance in the overall turnout of Election Day versus early voting. I really think we’ve been seeing a trend for higher participation as it’s pushed by candidates and political parties.”
Salinas said her staff is preparing for a high turnout on Election Day.
“We are preparing for high voter turnout,” Salinas said about Election Day. “We do have the voters in Hidalgo County, and I’m sure it’s throughout the state of Texas, that you wait for Election Day because it’s a celebration, right?
“It is a celebration for a lot of people, and a lot of people take it into heart in practicing their civic duty and their right to vote on Election Day. Because of that, we do expect high voter turnout on Election Day, as you know it has been in the past.”
The 12-day early voting period ended Friday with a total of 164,648 (36.9% of registered voters) ballots cast in Hidalgo County, of which 159,284 were in-person and 5,364 were mail-in. Cameron County had a total of 84,369 (35.4%) ballots cast during that same time.
In 2020, which had 18 days of early voting, a total of 188,337 ballots, or 48% of registered voters, were cast in Hidalgo County, and 86,901 votes, or 39%, were cast in Cameron County. Voters had 12 days for early voting in 2016, which saw 139,830 total early votes, or 41.2% registered voters, in Hidalgo County, and 61,339 total votes, or 31%, in Cameron County.
Cameron County will have 68 polling locations available come Election Day. Hidalgo County will have 109 polling locations. The locations can be found at each county’s elections website. Voters will be able to cast their ballots at any of the polling locations in their respective counties from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday.
Editor’s note: This story was updated with late-night totals Friday from the last day of early voting.
