A new internal poll shows progressive candidate Michelle Vallejo leading by 10 percentage points against moderate Ruben Ramirez in the race for the Democratic nomination for Texas’ 15th Congressional District.
The poll, released by the Vallejo campaign, showed her leading by 39% to Ramirez’s 29%. About 25% were undecided.
Conducted by Lake Research Partners, the poll surveyed a total of 400 likely 2022 Democratic primary voters in Texas by phone as well as text-to-online from March 23 to March 27.
(Read: Ramirez, Vallejo’s politics provide contrast in lead-up to District 15 runoff)
“The data were weighted slightly by gender, region, age, race on file, Spanish language, and support score,” according to a description of their methodology.
The poll has a margin of error of 4.9% for the entire sample and larger for sub-groups and split sample questions.
Among men, the poll showed her leading by 43% to 30%, and 35% to 29% among women.
Broken down by ethnicity, Vallejo led Hispanic voters 37% to 29% and Anglo voters 46% to 32%.
Going by region, it showed she led Hidalgo County 41% to Ramirez’s 30%, and she led the rest of District 15 with 34% to 28%.
When it came to whether or not voters viewed the candidates favorably, Ramirez ranked higher with 42% while Vallejo followed with 38%.
They point out, though, that among voters who can rate both candidates, Vallejo leads 49% to 32%.
Of the poll’s results, Vallejo read them as a reflection that her campaign’s work had been fruitful.
“This report and this survey, I think more than anything, tells me that that’s what we need to keep doing,” said Vallejo, an entrepreneur and co-owner of Pulga Los Portales. “We need to keep building our volunteer base, we need to keep engaging with people who are voters but have felt neglected for so long and don’t feel like their vote matters.”
“Talking to people about what this race means and really, truly how important their vote is, has really been showing us that that’s the way to go,” she added.
In response to the Vallejo campaign’s internal poll, Ramirez’s campaign drew attention to another poll conducted in February, prior to the Democratic Primary that was held March 1.
“What is obvious, is that Ruben Ramirez won the Primary in this district less than a month ago — beating Michelle Vallejo by over 8.2% — outraised her by a significant margin, and has the endorsement of Texas 15th’s sitting Congressman Vicente Gonzalez,” Ramirez’s campaign manager, Alex Obolensky, said in statement.
“While we are not aware of the methodology of this poll, recent independent public polling released by BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, demonstrates that Ruben’s message is much more compelling to voters in the 15th district than anyone else’s in the field — 69% of voters found his message compelling,” Obolensky said. “In contrast, Michelle Vallejo’s message was found to be not compelling by 39% of voters.”
That poll, commissioned by BOLD PAC but conducted by Public Policy Polling, was conducted in February, prior to the Democratic Primary, which was held March 1.
At the time, there were a total of five candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination but none were able to secure the 50% plus one vote needed to win outright.
Ramirez, an Army veteran, attorney and former teacher who holds moderate stances on many issues, received about 28% of the votes while Vallejo, a progressive candidate, received 20% of the votes.
As the top two vote-getters, Ramirez and Vallejo will face off against each other in the runoff election scheduled for May 24.
