The first five days of early voting in the March primaries have seen a significant increase of ballots cast for Republican candidates compared to the last gubernatorial election year, at least in the Rio Grande Valley’s most populous counties.
Including mail-ins, 3,760 ballots were cast by Hidalgo County voters in the Republican primary as of Friday. In 2018, which was the last gubernatorial year comparable to the current election cycle, there were 1,861 votes between in-person and mail-in ballots seen over the first five days of that primary. This is a 67% jump in Republican participation.
An even sharper increase is seen when isolating in-person turnout alone, which shows 3,700 voters participating in the Republican primary thus far compared to 1,626 over the same period in 2018. That’s a 77% spike in activity at the polls for Republicans in Hidalgo County.
These figures are according to the county elections department’s unofficial results, and juxtapose five-day turnouts that began on different days of the week — Monday through Friday in 2022 versus Tuesday through Saturday in 2018.
The Democratic primary hasn’t fared as well in Hidalgo County, with 13,680 total ballots cast so far compared to 17,470 the first five days of early voting in 2018, a 24% decline in Democratic turnout since the last gubernatorial elections.
Democratic in-person turnout amounted to 12,402 ballots cast since Monday; with 15,835 voters showing up to the polls over the same period in 2018, this also represents a 24% decrease.
Although a full week of early voting remains, as well as Election Day on March 1, this may continue to feed the narrative of a traditionally blue region flirting with the Republican Party.
The notion got off the ground thanks to a strong showing for former President Donald Trump during his reelection bid in 2020, when great gains were made for a Republican presidential candidate in Hidalgo and Starr counties.
National media outlets also pointed to the election of a Republican mayor in McAllen last year, but this is not uncommon in that city.
The showing here for Republicans does follow, however, several visits by Gov. Greg Abbott, who’s running for reelection, and Trump himself who’s been to the Valley on three occasions over the last two years. In October, the Republican National Committee opened a Hispanic community center in McAllen hoping to continue efforts wooing Valley voters.
For RNC spokesperson Macarena Martinez, these developments are an indication that the Valley’s interest in the GOP is no fluke.
“The Democratic Party is the party of open borders, record inflation, and defund the police. It’s obvious why South Texas voters are turning to the GOP, and this enthusiasm will carry over to a red wave in November,” Martinez said Saturday via text message.
Pointing to “hotly contested races” among the county judge and district attorney candidates, Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa said Saturday that he was surprised by the lack of Democratic turnout in Hidalgo County.
Hinojosa also said, however, that a clearer picture can be gained after early voting ends and Election Day passes.
Until then, Hinojosa attributed the rise in GOP interest at the polls to the races on the ballot.
“The increase in Republican turnout is not surprising because of the fact you have this hotly contested gubernatorial election, so you’re seeing a lot more Republicans turning out there, specifically the far right section of the party,” Hinojosa said. “I’m surprised to see there would be less Democratic turnout in the Hidalgo County primary, and I haven’t had a chance to analyze the reasons for that, so we’ll wait. But that’s not happening in Cameron County.”
He was referring to an increase in Democratic turnout over the first five days of early voting in Cameron County versus 2018’s showing during the same period.
There have been 6,029 in-person ballots cast thus far in the Democratic primary in Cameron County when in 2018 there were just 3,843, a 44% jump for Democrats there.
But like Hidalgo County, Republican turnout also increased in Cameron with 2,503 ballots cast as of Friday, a 108% increase from the 743 ballots cast after the first five days of the 2018 early voting period.
Other factors that could account for voter activity fluctuation are the races on the ballots. This year, there are more candidates running for congressional seats in both parties, with 26 hopefuls evenly split between Democrats and Republicans vying in either Districts 15 or 34.
In 2018, candidates in those districts were unopposed, leaving one individual on the ballot at the time. There were, however, nine Democrats and three Republicans running for governor then. This year, there are five Democrats and eight Republicans in the gubernatorial primaries.
Overall turnout at Hidalgo County polls saw a decrease in activity with 17,440 ballots cast including mail-ins; after the first five days of the 2018 primaries, there were 19,331 total ballots cast.
In Cameron County, there was an increase in turnout at the polls with 8,532 in-person ballots cast, which is nearly 4,000 more than the 4,586 cast during the same time in 2018.
Early voting lasts through Friday, Feb. 25. Election Day is Tuesday, March 1.
