Forecast for bitterly cold temps raises fears of ‘Great Freeze’ repeat

A savage Arctic cold front is on its way, and Christmas may not be white, but it is going to be extremely cold.

The next few days will be balmy, with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 50s.

Thursday, however, will be the trigger for the entry of bitterly cold temperatures.

“We’re looking at a very strong Arctic cold front coming out of Canada, and it’s going to be diving through the middle portion of the country late Wednesday night and Thursday, and finally move through our backyard sometime Thursday evening between 6 p.m. and midnight,” David Reese, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Brownsville, said Monday.

“After that, another front comes through with a sudden increase in winds, and we can be looking at wind gusts from 30 to 40 and maybe even higher Thursday night into Friday morning,” he added. “Temperatures drop rapidly.”

The “feels like” temperatures Friday could well fall into the 10- to 20-degree range, Reese said.

“We’re looking at overnight lows Thursday night to Friday morning, anywhere between 24 to 28 degrees here in Cameron County,” he said. “A little bit warmer, 35 to 38 degrees for the Islands, but they’re surrounded by the water. McAllen? They’re looking very similar, about 25 to 28.”

Highs Friday will be in the mid-30s, but overnight lows will be the coldest of the next few days.

“We’re looking at the winds calming down during the day on Friday, and with the winds calming down we’re looking at generally 23 to 26 for the McAllen-Harlingen-Brownsville corridor, the populated RGV, and we could have some teens showing up in the brush country.”

A view of utility poles near FM 511 in Brownsville on Monday, Dec. 19, 2022, as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) closely monitors upcoming changes in the weather. (Miguel Roberts/The Brownsville Herald)

On Sunday, we can finally expect a warming trend, with highs of 52 degrees and then 58 degrees on Monday.

It appears as of now the lows from this storm system will not quite reach the frigid temperatures experienced during the “Great Freeze” of February 2021.

The strain on the state’s power grid left millions without power, and 246 people died, creating one of the worst natural disasters in Texas history.

Grid questions

During the Great Freeze of 2021, Texas grid operator ERCOT ordered a total of 20,000 megawatts of rolling blackouts in an effort to prevent grid collapse, the largest manually controlled load-shedding event in U.S. history.

More than 4.5 million people in Texas lost power — some for as long as four days.

Could it happen again?

Federal utility regulators say the ERCOT grid is still vulnerable.

After February 2021, FERC regulators came up with 28 ways Texas could harden its power grid to prevent a reoccurrence. But the Austin American-Statesmen reported in October that federal regulators believe the Texas electricity grid is nearly as vulnerable now as it was last year.

A view of power lines in Brownsville on Monday, Dec. 19, 2022, as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) closely monitors upcoming changes in the weather. (Miguel Roberts/The Brownsville Herald)

ERCOT officials contested the report, citing “inaccuracies.”

According to a document released by FERC, “the ability of the ERCOT grid to handle extreme winter weather along the lines of what hit the state in February 2021 appears to be only marginally better, despite more than 18 months of effort to make the grid more dependable — as well as assurances from state regulators, and from Gov. Greg Abbott, that it is significantly improved,” the newspaper reported.

ERCOT alert

ERCOT officials on Friday issued a statement saying they are closely monitoring weather forecasts and issued an Operating Condition Notice to transmission and distribution owners and generation resources that temperatures will meet ERCOT’s criteria of 25 degrees or lower in the Austin/San Antonio and the Dallas Fort-Worth areas between Thursday and Monday.

“Over the past 18 months, ERCOT has worked closely with the Public Utility Commission and elected officials to implement reforms and increase grid reliability, including weatherization, bringing more generation online sooner if needed, and purchasing more reserve power,” the statement reads. “As a result, the reliability and resiliency of the grid has been strengthened significantly.”