‘The heat is on: NWS: No tropical relief on the horizon

For anyone who’s enjoyed the last couple of days of overcast skies, lower temperatures and maybe even a drop of rain or two, and would like for it to stick around for awhile, sorry, you’re out of luck.

Brian Mejia, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley Station, characterized it as a “very temporary break” compliments of a weak upper-level disturbance that drifted in from the Gulf and brought with it a small amount of shower activity. He predicted that by this (Saturday) morning any lingering rain chances would be disappearing fast and would be “almost nonexistent for Sunday and Monday.”

The heat wave baking Texas is predicted to only intensify next week, pushing temperatures even higher into the triple digits. Thank the persistent high-pressure ridge parked over the U.S. southern tier and serving as a barrier to rain in much of the state and region, including the parts that dump water into the Falcon and Amistad reservoirs, which the Valley depends on for water.

And while large swaths of central, west and north Texas are in the grip of Exceptional Drought conditions according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, Cameron County and much of Hidalgo County is merely Abnormally Dry, while a western portion of Hidalgo and nearly all of Starr County have zero drought conditions for now.

Mejia said that’s due to heavy rainfall the region received in the spring, representing the year’s only notable rainfall so far.

“That really helped our drought conditions here” he said. “Otherwise we’d be in the same position as upstate Texas.”

A meteorology rule-of-thumb is that dry begets dry, and wet begets wet. Aside from small pockets of heavy rain here and there, the state overall has been “really dry” so far this year, Mejia said, adding that beneficial rain is missing from the forecast for at least for the next few weeks.

“Unfortunately for Texas, the heat is on and it’s going to stay for at least the short term,” he said.

At the same time, the situation could change — eventually, Mejia said.

“All it takes is one system,” he said. “You get one little system and we’re back to flooding mode.”

For now, the brutal summer of 2022 can be blamed on the La Niña climate event than doesn’t know when to quit. It’s been affecting rain and temperature patterns and exacerbating drought and flooding around the world for two years. The World Meteorological Organization reported last month a high probability that La Niña will continue at least through August and possibly into the Northern Hemisphere’s fall and start of winter.

Some climate models see it persisting into 2023, which, if that happens, would be the only third “triple dip” La Niña since 1950, according to the WMO.

And while high pressure is preventing storm systems from being birthed in Mexico and sweeping into Texas to fill up its reservoirs, conditions in the Gulf likewise remain unconducive to tropical activity that could bring relief to at least part of the Valley, even though the Atlantic hurricane season has been underway since June 1.

“In Brownsville the past few years we’ve had some sort of tropical uptick by this time,” Mejia said. “We didn’t see anything really in June, and so far in July it’s been fairly quiet. … It’s a bad thing if you’re wanting rain. Of course we don’t want the devastating flooding.”

Several conditions have to be just right for tropical cyclone development, and right now factors like wind shear over the Gulf and even Saharan dust are working against it, he said, noting that the National Hurricane Center isn’t expecting any type of tropical development over the next five days.

The occasional scattered sea breeze showers may pop up, but nothing in the way of serious hydration without some degree of tropical action, Mejia said. In other words, look forward to more hot, dry and, frankly, boring weather.

“Real relief from drought conditions is probably going to have to come from tropical events or some sort of tropical air mass that moves into our area,” Mejia said.

Still, it’s that time of year and things could fire up in the Gulf in a hurry at some point, he said.

“We are still in hurricane season,” Mejia said. “Don’t let your guard down.”